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Monthly Outlook: December 2017 November ended on a high note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average spiking to a new high, piercing the 24,000 level.  Party hats all around!  It was 50 years ago that The 5th Dimension released “Up, Up and Away in My Beautiful Balloon.”  Maybe it should be re-released as this year’s market theme song.  Based on the amount of calls from clients, you’re all well aware of the exuberance and good returns!  But after the first 30 seconds of the call, comes the skeptical question, “Can it last?”  We’ll discuss this juxtaposition, below, but I’ll tell you now that you’d be justified to feel both delighted and nervous at the same time. Before we look forward, let’s review November.  U.S. stocks (S&P500) did well in November, gaining 3.0%.  This is the 11th straight monthly gain for U.S. stocks, which is very rare.  Much of the strength [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2017 These markets just keep grinding higher!  The S&P500 has been up every month this year and, according to Deutsche Bank, this hasn’t happened for 90 years.  But wait, it gets better.  Every major asset class is in an uptrend: U.S. stocks, international stocks, bonds, and commodities.   It’s just one of those times where it’s good to be an investor and we’re capturing the gains. As Kai Rysdall of APM’s Marketplace would say, “Let’s do the numbers.”  For October, bonds (Barclays Aggregate) were flat, at -0.02% total return.  U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained +2.1%, with the Technology sector advancing a very strong +6.5%.  International stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) were also up, adding +1.9% for the month.   Japan was the star of the month for international stocks, gaining +5.2%.  Putting it all together, our most popular iFolios 75/25 benchmark was up 1.4% for the month, the tenth straight [...]

Monthly Outlook: October 2017 When everything is working and you’re meeting your goals, you’ve just got to keep on keepin’ on. Markets – almost all of them – just keep trending higher and making us all a lot of money. Nothing seems to scare investors away. Talking heads have ample predictions about what will derail this party, but they’ve all been wrong so far (they’ll say they’re just early). We have political discord, sky-high valuations, missile launches from North Korea, less accommodative central banks, and on and on. All of this is known by investors and already priced in to the market. So far, it seems like they just don’t care! More likely, investors do care but they don’t see anything that will change their growth outlook. Rallies often end when something unforeseen occurs – a black swan event, if you will. And that’s why predictions are usually futile. You’d [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2017 August was a typical summer month – not much going on in the markets. Of course, valuations remain sky-high for stocks but investors seem content to hang in there until something breaks. There are some concerns brewing (more on that later) but for now, we’re staying invested and watching very carefully. Rest assured that we look at every position every day so we won’t miss any trend changes. That’s what we do, so you don’t have to. Let’s take a look at the numbers for last month. For August, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) were basically flat, up just 0.1%, international stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) inched higher by 0.6%, while bonds (Barclays Aggregate) did the best, up 0.8%. All markets (US stocks, int’l stocks, bonds) remain in an up-trend (above their 200-day moving average) so the right call is to stay invested for growth. And so we [...]

Monthly Outlook: August 2017 We’re starting to sound like a broken record: Last month was yet again another good month for markets and our iFolios’ returns. But that’s a tune we never get tired of hearing! Let’s get right to the numbers. For the month of July, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained 1.9%, international stocks (FTSE All‐world ex‐USA) soared 3.3% higher, and bonds (Barclays Aggregate) plodded 0.4% higher. The trends continue to be “up” for all markets so we remain fully invested. We will point out that markets are fairly extended within their trends, however. For example, the S&P500 is 6.2% above its 200‐day moving average trend line and the NASDAQ is 9.5% above its 200‐day moving average trend line. What that tells us is that the up‐trends are strong and that maybe, just maybe, markets could pause or even pullback a bit over the near term. And by “a [...]