Monthly Outlook: May 2023 Markets continue to trend higher in April, although they faded a bit at month end. After a rough 2022, where the S&P500 lost 18.2%, the recovery of the past several months has been a welcomed reprieve. The S&P500 is “only” about 13% off its recent January 2022 peak and, more importantly, the trend is up, for now. Bonds, too, are trending higher this year after losing 13.1% in 2022. Interest rates, at least in the 2-year to 30-year range, have likely peaked for this cycle. Remember, lower rates mean higher bond prices. That said, the Fed may raise their 1-day Fed Funds rate a bit higher still and will probably keep them there for months until they trigger an economic recession. But again, that’s good for bond returns. Although most markets are trending higher again, which suggests that investors are optimistic, the economic reports are increasingly [...]

Monthly Outlook: April 2023 March was another volatile month for markets but ended up with gains across most markets. The first week of March brought news of a bank run focused on Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, and other smaller names. But by March 13th, bailouts and stimulus programs came to the rescue and markets rallied for the back half of the month. Markets just love “cheap and easy” money, and our government doesn’t disappoint. Between the FDIC, Federal Reserve, Congress, or Executive orders, every “crisis” is met with a stimulus program. We could debate whether it’s the government’s job to prop up markets (we won’t), but that’s the Pavlovian response that traders have learned. For the first quarter of 2023, the S&P500 is up 7.4%, the international stock market is up 8.9%, and bonds are up 3.2%. Despite all the stressful news and worry, markets are holding [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2023 Although markets started 2023 with strength and uptrends, February was a bit soft. The S&P500 lost 2.5%, the international EAFE index dropped 3.1%, and even Bonds gave back 2.6%. If you’re feeling like markets have been back and forth without any sustainable trends for a long time, you’d be right. The fact is that the S&P500, today, is exactly where it was two years ago. The bigger surprise is that Bonds are down 13% over the past two years, so investors with a blend of stocks and bonds are down, overall. The only asset that is up over the past two years is the Energy sector, which is up about 28%. But the Energy sector is only about 5% of the total market and no one puts all of their money in Oil company stocks. So, what gives? Where are the markets going and how should [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2023 It’s that time of year when we wish each other “Health & Prosperity” or something similar. I’ve always thought that health (both physical and mental) should be one’s primary focus. Without it, no amount of money is really going to matter. But I have learned something about prosperity over the past several decades and will share some time-honored secrets to achieving it. After a dismal bear market in 2022, where nearly every asset class did poorly, many investors could use some hope and a reminder that there is a good path forward. First, a recap of 2022 for the record: S&P500 lost 18.2%, NASDAQ sunk 32.5%, International stocks dropped 15.5%, and even Bonds lost 13.1%. Cash was the only major asset class with a slight positive return. The typical diversified growth fund (i.e., Vanguard Growth Fund) lost 17.2% and many investors didn’t even do that well. [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2022 The U.S. economy is not yet in a recession. But it is getting closer. In the meantime, markets have been zig-zagging lower as investors await clarity on the “Will We – Won’t We” question on recession. The market (S&P500) is down 13.2%, YTD, and we haven’t even started the recession, officially. Plus, investors have endured a lot of volatility along the way. The S&P500 has “zigged” four times (-12%, -17%, -12%, -16%) and “zagged” four times (+11%, +8%, +17%, +13%) to get to that -13.2%, YTD result. As we start December, markets are in a “zag” uptrend and trying to move higher. As more economic data is released and the Federal Reserve’s tightening program evolves, investors will become more certain about the outlook and more sustainable price trends will develop. But which direction? Our trend-following investment strategy (iFolios®) requires us to be invested on the right [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2022  Markets had a decent “bear market rally” in October. The S&P500 gained 8.1%, the NASDAQ rebounded 4.0%, and international stocks added 5.9%. These are hopeful signs until you realize that all three markets are still down 17% to 29%, YTD. Much of the rally was sparked by speculation that the Federal Reserve might be ready to “pivot” on their rapid rate-hike program, and move to a slower pace and maybe even a holding pattern. The Fed has already raised Fed Funds from 0% in March to 3.00% today, and most likely to 3.75% this week. Markets anticipate another 0.75% or 0.50% at the Fed’s last 2022 meeting in mid-December, putting Fed Funds at 4.25% to 4.50% by year end. All of this is baked into the market today. The question is, What then? Will 4.50% be enough to quell inflation and signal “enough?” That’s the hope [...]