Monthly Outlook: July 2025 These have been turbulent times, and I can hear the fatigue in the voices of our friends and clients. 2025 is only half over and we’ve experienced so much uncertainty, erratic behavior, and shocking news. Already in 2025, the S&P 500 plunged 20% before recovering 25% for a net 0% move over just four months. That’s a 45% move in four months, to say it another way. That’s nuts! We’ve endured tariffs on, tariffs off, Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Iran, and Trump vs Musk. This week, we watch and wait as Congress debates whether to create a US budget with $3T deficits, the largest planned deficit during peace time ever. What will next week bring us? But here’s the funny thing. Even with all this turmoil, our portfolios are all nicely positive, YTD. Depending on the model, portfolios are up 4% to 7%, YTD, and [...]

  Monthly Outlook: June 2025 The stock markets, for the last two or three months, have been as volatile as I’ve ever experienced, and I’ve been investing for four decades (gulp). The U.S. stock index, S&P500, plummeted 20% and then rebounded 22%. That still leaves it 3% short of the recent high, but that’s the math of compounding. Similarly, the NASDAQ 100 (Big Tech) dropped 24%, then rallied 28%, and is 3% off its high. The same “dump & bump” pattern held true for international stocks with the INTL EAFE index falling 15% and then recovering 22% for a net 5% gain. The point is that all major stock markets moved about 40%+ in just two months if you add the down with the up. Investors just don’t see that kind of movement very often and it’s unsettling, to say the least. We surely don’t need to explain the cause [...]

  Monthly Outlook: May 2025 April was a tough month for global stocks, with record volatility and whipsaw days back and forth. On April 2nd, Trump unleashed his Trump Tariff Tax program that was far bigger and broader than markets were expecting. In the following three days, the S&P500 lost over $6 trillion in value, down 14%. On April 9th, Trump suspended many of the tariffs for 90-days, surely in part due to the crashing stock market. Since then, stocks have zig-zagged higher and are nearly back to where they were on April 2nd. What a wild month! Stocks moved a total of 30% in April, 14% down and 15% up. That is not normal. As it happens, April 30th is the end of Trump’s first 100 days in office. It’s become a common timeframe for all U.S. Presidents’ first “report card,” a tradition going back to F.D.R. in 1933. [...]

Monthly Outlook: April 2025 It’s been a brutal six weeks for “the market” if by the market you mean the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) or the S&P500 (SPY) stock market indices. Since the peak six weeks ago, QQQ is down 13% and SPY is down 9%.  YTD, they’re down about 9% and 5%, respectively. If your entire portfolio was invested in just one of these US stock market benchmarks, then yes, it probably hurts. But most investors, and all of our investors, are much more globally diversified and are invested in many markets. Combined with our systematic, rules-based, buy and sell signals, we’ve softened the blow, and our managed portfolios are nearly flat, about -2% to +1%, YTD. We’ll discuss “markets” and then “active allocation,” below. The Market vs The Markets It’s understandable why so many U.S. investors think of “the market” as the S&P500, or sometimes the NASDAQ 100 or [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2025 Markets popped 3.5% higher for three days after the November elections. Since then, markets have been as volatile as the daily tweets and policy changes coming out of Washington. It’s creating a lot of anxiety for all of us: citizens, investors, and global politicians, alike. Since the 3-day post-election pop, U.S. markets have been stuck with uncertainty, with the S&P500 -0.3%, and the NASDAQ -0.9%. It surprises people to know that, for the same period, the international stock index, EAFE, is +4.5% and Bonds are +1.7%. So much for tariffs helping the U.S. and hurting our global partners. 2025 has only just begun and, as Pink Floyd might sing today, investors have become “uncomfortably numb.” In the long run, markets trade on fundamentals and valuation. Calculate a business’s earnings today, estimate its future growth rate, assign a reasonable valuation multiple, and you’ve got your future price [...]

Monthly Outlook: February 2025 Our 2025 Outlook made only one prediction: “Unpredictability.” And so far, we’re not wrong! Since the election, the stock market (S&P500) has zig-zagged about 4%, five separate times. Up, down, up, and so on.  But would it surprise you that the S&P500 is actually flat since the day after the November elections? In other words, it’s been a volatile, but mostly flattish, market for the past three months. Investors seem to be hanging on every newsflash, every tweet, and not really sure what’s real and what’s not. If history is any guide (and of course it is), flattish markets don’t last very long, and a clear direction will develop soon enough. But we’ve also learned from history that it’s best not to guess about market trends, and better to let the market show us. We’ll continue our vigilance and invest in uptrends for growth when we [...]