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Mid-Monthly Outlook: November 2025 Any way you slice it, a tariff is a tax. There are many reasons given for why a government would impose tariffs, and there are just as many opinions about whether they’re good or bad. To add to the confusion, tariffs are a political issue that create divisions that many would prefer to avoid, so an honest and evidence-based discussion is rarely had. But we’re going there. Motivation for Tariffs Why would a government choose to tax imports from foreign countries? Possible reasons include: to protect local industries, to create jobs, to push back against “unfair trade,” to raise tax revenue, for national security, etc. These reasons  sound good to most people, which is why they are political. What politician wouldn’t want to look like they’re fixing these issues? But are these valid reasons; meaning, do tariffs work like this? Let’s say a U.S. auto company [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2025 As we work through this spooky time (I’m thinking Halloween, not markets), we can reflect on the six-month rally that has led stock markets to new highs on a weekly basis. Since the mini crash in early April, caused by Trump’s Tariff Tax announcement (and then equally abrupt reversal), markets have ripped higher with barely a down day. Never mind peak valuations or softening fundamentals, it’s full steam ahead! The rally has been led by artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, primarily, as investors will pay any price to get onboard with technology that will change the world. Does it bother anyone that Tesla trades at 279 P/E, Nvidia trades at 79 P/E, or Palantir trades at 608 P/E? Nah, you just need imagination! If you project future earnings of these AI companies to be “infinity” (or at least huge), you can justify anything. Back in 2000, at [...]

Monthly Outlook: October 2025 With summer behind us, I find myself reflecting on vacation travel and the mostly good times that come with adventures and experiencing other parts of the world. Most of you are travelers, so I know you can relate. As I was reflecting, it dawned on me how similar traveling is to investing. By comparing the two, perhaps it will help us recognize where we are today and how to prepare for the road, and markets, ahead. Planning Your Trip There are people that thoroughly plan their trips with research on the local sites and history, best deals to be had, and shortcuts to ease the hassle. And there are people who prefer to “wing it” and take life as it comes. Maybe you check for passport, wallet, sunglasses, and away you go! Or, maybe you identify with both of these types of travelers, depending on how [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2025 Labor Day weekend is the unofficial end of summer. Most kids hate it, most parents love it, and on Wall Street they say that the grownups come back to work (probably from the Hamptons and Aspen) and get serious. With eight months of 2025 already behind us, nearly every market remains uptrending and portfolios have sizeable gains. We’re still “all in” for growth, with little cash buffer. But we remain vigilant for any changes that would shift investors from fear of missing out (FOMO) to fear of losing out (FOLO?). Given the state of the world, such a change could happen quickly. So, let’s use this calm period to get serious about wealth management. Our professional goal is to help our clients live their best lives by making their wealth work for them in the most risk-managed, tax-favorable way. Along the journey, we encourage them to [...]

Monthly Outlook: August 2025 July was another good month for global stock markets despite constant news about on-off tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and earnings. The S&P500 had its third best July since 1928, with 10 new highs, and a gain of 2.2%. Before we get too excited about that, you should know that the 2nd best July since 1928 was July 1929, and we all know how 1929 ended up. We could also factually point out that the S&P500 is up about 25% in the past three months, which sounds great. But we must remember the March-April market plunge caused by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, when the S&P500 dropped nearly 20% in two months. You can see how misleading facts can be when we report on a selective window of time. Looking at the YTD returns, a more common reference timeframe, the S&P500 is up 8.4%, the international EAFE [...]

Monthly Outlook: July 2025 These have been turbulent times, and I can hear the fatigue in the voices of our friends and clients. 2025 is only half over and we’ve experienced so much uncertainty, erratic behavior, and shocking news. Already in 2025, the S&P 500 plunged 20% before recovering 25% for a net 0% move over just four months. That’s a 45% move in four months, to say it another way. That’s nuts! We’ve endured tariffs on, tariffs off, Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Iran, and Trump vs Musk. This week, we watch and wait as Congress debates whether to create a US budget with $3T deficits, the largest planned deficit during peace time ever. What will next week bring us? But here’s the funny thing. Even with all this turmoil, our portfolios are all nicely positive, YTD. Depending on the model, portfolios are up 4% to 7%, YTD, and [...]