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Monthly Outlook: January 2026 As we wrap up another very successful year of investing, Wall Street analysts are busy making their 2026 predictions and recommendations. You’ll see article after blog after post claiming to know, often with great precision, where the S&P500 will end up at year-end 2026, how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, where inflation will go, how high gold will go, and so on. It’s all bunk. At year end, we’re always reminded of Yogi Berra’s famous quote, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But that doesn’t seem to keep Wall St. from trying. And you’ll notice that analysts are notoriously optimistic, and consistently wrong. According to Barron’s Big Money Poll, not one of the analysts surveyed expect a negative return for the S&P500, with the average expectation coming in at +9% growth. Over at Standard & Poor’s, the average analyst [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2025 There’s an increasing amount of uncertainty in the air. Politics remain divisive, and the Federal Reserve balances stubborn inflation and rising unemployment. The Main St. economy shows clear signs of slowing, while the Wall St. economy continues to make new highs. There’s just a lot of competing issues and opinions and it’s difficult to know what to think and how to carry on. As wealth advisors, our focus is on how to make our clients’ net worth work to support their best life. Like most solutions, it’s really a combination of many strategies. But today, we’ll discuss 3 tips to make your wealth more resilient in times of uncertainty. The key to growing and preserving wealth is compounding returns over long periods of time. Resilient portfolios do that best because they provide steady returns and reduce the big drawdowns that crush the compounding effect. Tip #1: [...]

Mid-Monthly Outlook: November 2025 Any way you slice it, a tariff is a tax. There are many reasons given for why a government would impose tariffs, and there are just as many opinions about whether they’re good or bad. To add to the confusion, tariffs are a political issue that create divisions that many would prefer to avoid, so an honest and evidence-based discussion is rarely had. But we’re going there. Motivation for Tariffs Why would a government choose to tax imports from foreign countries? Possible reasons include: to protect local industries, to create jobs, to push back against “unfair trade,” to raise tax revenue, for national security, etc. These reasons  sound good to most people, which is why they are political. What politician wouldn’t want to look like they’re fixing these issues? But are these valid reasons; meaning, do tariffs work like this? Let’s say a U.S. auto company [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2025 As we work through this spooky time (I’m thinking Halloween, not markets), we can reflect on the six-month rally that has led stock markets to new highs on a weekly basis. Since the mini crash in early April, caused by Trump’s Tariff Tax announcement (and then equally abrupt reversal), markets have ripped higher with barely a down day. Never mind peak valuations or softening fundamentals, it’s full steam ahead! The rally has been led by artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, primarily, as investors will pay any price to get onboard with technology that will change the world. Does it bother anyone that Tesla trades at 279 P/E, Nvidia trades at 79 P/E, or Palantir trades at 608 P/E? Nah, you just need imagination! If you project future earnings of these AI companies to be “infinity” (or at least huge), you can justify anything. Back in 2000, at [...]

Monthly Outlook: October 2025 With summer behind us, I find myself reflecting on vacation travel and the mostly good times that come with adventures and experiencing other parts of the world. Most of you are travelers, so I know you can relate. As I was reflecting, it dawned on me how similar traveling is to investing. By comparing the two, perhaps it will help us recognize where we are today and how to prepare for the road, and markets, ahead. Planning Your Trip There are people that thoroughly plan their trips with research on the local sites and history, best deals to be had, and shortcuts to ease the hassle. And there are people who prefer to “wing it” and take life as it comes. Maybe you check for passport, wallet, sunglasses, and away you go! Or, maybe you identify with both of these types of travelers, depending on how [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2025 Labor Day weekend is the unofficial end of summer. Most kids hate it, most parents love it, and on Wall Street they say that the grownups come back to work (probably from the Hamptons and Aspen) and get serious. With eight months of 2025 already behind us, nearly every market remains uptrending and portfolios have sizeable gains. We’re still “all in” for growth, with little cash buffer. But we remain vigilant for any changes that would shift investors from fear of missing out (FOMO) to fear of losing out (FOLO?). Given the state of the world, such a change could happen quickly. So, let’s use this calm period to get serious about wealth management. Our professional goal is to help our clients live their best lives by making their wealth work for them in the most risk-managed, tax-favorable way. Along the journey, we encourage them to [...]