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Monthly Outlook: October 2026 We wrapped up the third quarter of 2026 with nearly every major stock index still in an uptrend. The S&P500, NASDAQ, the international MSCI EAFE index, and MSCI Emerging index are all above their long-term moving average and so our signals keep us “all in” for growth. We could just stop there and believe that the world is just grand. But there are some weaker undercurrents that we are aware of and are watching carefully. The S&P500 is comprised of 11 sectors and today, only four of them are still in uptrends while seven have already rolled over to downtrends, triggering our sell signals. Technology, Energy, Healthcare, and Financials are the four sectors that are making all of the gains this year. It’s a little unusual to have such narrow breadth and concentration in so few names. We’ll be watching these four strong sectors to see [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2026 My, how time flies when you’re having fun. This month marks our 25th anniversary, which means this is our 300th Monthly Outlook. It’s been a wonderful journey and we’re so grateful to the many clients that have entrusted us and to the friends, business partners, and family members who have supported us along the way. We’ve seen a lot since we started the firm in 2001: the internet bubble and bust of 2001–2002; the Great Financial Crisis of 2008; COVID; four US Presidents and five Federal Reserve Chairs; wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran; and now perhaps a new AI bubble in the making. Against all that, we’ve also seen some fantastic market rallies and growth. Although it took until 2013 for the S&P500 to get back to the level it was in 2001 when we started the firm, it has been almost a straight line [...]

Monthly Outlook: August 2026 July was another headline-grabbing month with daily reports of individual stocks going either up or down 10%. As reported by Zero Hedge, "It was the Nasdaq’s worst July in 22 years, bonds biggest July yield hike since 2005, and oil’s biggest July jump in 30 years." Yet, the broad US stock market index, the S&P500, was dead flat at +0.05% for July. Go figure. As for bonds, the US 10-year interest rate jumped to 4.75% (remember when it was <1.0% in 2020?). And the 30-year rate jumped to 5.27%, the highest rate since 2007. Most investors attribute the upward rate trend to the Fed’s decision to continue holding Fed Funds rate steady at 3.5% despite most inflation readings showing a stubborn 4% rate. This has a negative effect on long maturity bonds and why Ryan Investments is only holding short- to intermediate-term bonds and bond ETFs. Tech & AI Stocks [...]

Monthly Outlook: July 2026 Happy July 4th! America likes to celebrate the holiday with parades, barbeques, fireworks, and gatherings with friends and family. This year is an especially momentous one as we enjoy 250 years of American history. Maybe it’s a good time, then, to take a moment during the revelry to reflect on how many freedoms and liberties we enjoy, albeit in our imperfect nation. Thomas Jefferson wrote “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness” into our Declaration of Independence as our basic rights, and we continue to enjoy them today. Not every country does as much. That said, 2026 America is a different world than it was at its inception in 1776. We’ve enjoyed enormous benefits from innovations and inventions, and our standard of living is the highest in history. On the other hand, we’ve endured many wars, booms and busts, debt and deficits, political banter, and environmental [...]

Monthly Outlook: June 2026 Global stock markets continued to make new highs in May, especially the technology and AI memory chip markets. Nothing seems to stall this bull market and every dip gets bought. Since the 2022 pullback in both stocks and bonds, the S&P500 is up almost 100% with only two small dips. The first dip was April 2025 from the Trump Tariff Tantrum that only lasted one month. And the second dip was the start of the Iran war in April 2026, causing stocks to dip, but for only three weeks. The war is far from over, but the dip sure is! Again, despite myriad catalysts for a downturn, investors just shrug off any bad news and buy, buy, buy. We certainly benefit from such bullishness with impressive YTD gains across all portfolios. But we’re also aware that new highs have left many stock markets overvalued and extended [...]

Monthly Outlook: May 2026 Markets have traded like a yo-yo for the past two months, with the S&P500 index down 4.9% in March and up 10.5% in April, closing at new all-time highs. Other markets like the NASDAQ 100, and the INTL index, are trading in the same way. If it feels like a little déjà vu to last year’s Mar/Apr, that’s because it looks similar. Last year, we had the Trump tariff plunge & recover. This year, I guess we can call it the Iran war plunge & recover. As long-term growth investors, we’re not really used to such volatile geopolitical policy changes. But I would say that markets and investors aren’t nuts, they’re just efficiently and quickly pricing in the data as it comes in. Markets just reflect reality, volatile as it is. With global stock prices trading at new highs, investors should be happy about the sizeable [...]