Monthly Outlook: March 2026 Markets, and our managed portfolios, continue to trend higher in 2026, with gains of +2% to 4%, YTD. But hidden in this headline are undercurrents and subtle shifts that are taking place. The U.S. stock market (let’s use the S&P500), is actually near-flat, YTD, with a modest +0.6% gain. But last year’s darling, the NASDAQ 100, which has all the Big Tech names in it, is down -1.1%. It’s the international stock market that is the star of the global equity market, with a YTD gain of +9.7%. Within the emerging market equity markets, we see overall uptrends but splits between countries. Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil are up, while China and India are down. Lastly, the “boring” bond market is up +1.8%, YTD as the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate slides lower from 4.16% to 3.96% this year. We see parallels to this bifurcated market story elsewhere. [...]

Monthly Outlook: February 2026 Most markets are off to a good start in 2026, with global stocks, bonds, commodities, REITs, and other markets posting solid gains in January. One market, however, is clearly losing ground and that is the US dollar. And isn’t that the market we’re really most concerned about? Isn’t that our “bottom line?” The US Dollar Index measures the value of the US dollar against a trade-weighted basket of foreign currencies including the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, and Aussie dollar. This index shows that the US dollar has lost 11.7% in the last year (since its peak in January 2025) and lost 1.2% last month, alone (January 2026). Currencies fluctuate against each other all the time, but when our currency falls nearly 12% in a year and the trend continues to be lower, we have to ask, where does it stop? Why Do We Care About US [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2026 As we wrap up another very successful year of investing, Wall Street analysts are busy making their 2026 predictions and recommendations. You’ll see article after blog after post claiming to know, often with great precision, where the S&P500 will end up at year-end 2026, how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, where inflation will go, how high gold will go, and so on. It’s all bunk. At year end, we’re always reminded of Yogi Berra’s famous quote, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But that doesn’t seem to keep Wall St. from trying. And you’ll notice that analysts are notoriously optimistic, and consistently wrong. According to Barron’s Big Money Poll, not one of the analysts surveyed expect a negative return for the S&P500, with the average expectation coming in at +9% growth. Over at Standard & Poor’s, the average analyst [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2025 There’s an increasing amount of uncertainty in the air. Politics remain divisive, and the Federal Reserve balances stubborn inflation and rising unemployment. The Main St. economy shows clear signs of slowing, while the Wall St. economy continues to make new highs. There’s just a lot of competing issues and opinions and it’s difficult to know what to think and how to carry on. As wealth advisors, our focus is on how to make our clients’ net worth work to support their best life. Like most solutions, it’s really a combination of many strategies. But today, we’ll discuss 3 tips to make your wealth more resilient in times of uncertainty. The key to growing and preserving wealth is compounding returns over long periods of time. Resilient portfolios do that best because they provide steady returns and reduce the big drawdowns that crush the compounding effect. Tip #1: [...]

Mid-Monthly Outlook: November 2025 Any way you slice it, a tariff is a tax. There are many reasons given for why a government would impose tariffs, and there are just as many opinions about whether they’re good or bad. To add to the confusion, tariffs are a political issue that create divisions that many would prefer to avoid, so an honest and evidence-based discussion is rarely had. But we’re going there. Motivation for Tariffs Why would a government choose to tax imports from foreign countries? Possible reasons include: to protect local industries, to create jobs, to push back against “unfair trade,” to raise tax revenue, for national security, etc. These reasons  sound good to most people, which is why they are political. What politician wouldn’t want to look like they’re fixing these issues? But are these valid reasons; meaning, do tariffs work like this? Let’s say a U.S. auto company [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2025 As we work through this spooky time (I’m thinking Halloween, not markets), we can reflect on the six-month rally that has led stock markets to new highs on a weekly basis. Since the mini crash in early April, caused by Trump’s Tariff Tax announcement (and then equally abrupt reversal), markets have ripped higher with barely a down day. Never mind peak valuations or softening fundamentals, it’s full steam ahead! The rally has been led by artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, primarily, as investors will pay any price to get onboard with technology that will change the world. Does it bother anyone that Tesla trades at 279 P/E, Nvidia trades at 79 P/E, or Palantir trades at 608 P/E? Nah, you just need imagination! If you project future earnings of these AI companies to be “infinity” (or at least huge), you can justify anything. Back in 2000, at [...]