Monthly Outlook: May 2025 April was a tough month for global stocks, with record volatility and whipsaw days back and forth. On April 2nd, Trump unleashed his Trump Tariff Tax program that was far bigger and broader than markets were expecting. In the following three days, the S&P500 lost over $6 trillion in value, down 14%. On April 9th, Trump suspended many of the tariffs for 90-days, surely in part due to the crashing stock market. Since then, stocks have zig-zagged higher and are nearly back to where they were on April 2nd. What a wild month! Stocks moved a total of 30% in April, 14% down and 15% up. That is not normal. As it happens, April 30th is the end of Trump’s first 100 days in office. It’s become a common timeframe for all U.S. Presidents’ first “report card,” a tradition going back to F.D.R. in 1933. [...]

Monthly Outlook: April 2025 It’s been a brutal six weeks for “the market” if by the market you mean the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) or the S&P500 (SPY) stock market indices. Since the peak six weeks ago, QQQ is down 13% and SPY is down 9%.  YTD, they’re down about 9% and 5%, respectively. If your entire portfolio was invested in just one of these US stock market benchmarks, then yes, it probably hurts. But most investors, and all of our investors, are much more globally diversified and are invested in many markets. Combined with our systematic, rules-based, buy and sell signals, we’ve softened the blow, and our managed portfolios are nearly flat, about -2% to +1%, YTD. We’ll discuss “markets” and then “active allocation,” below. The Market vs The Markets It’s understandable why so many U.S. investors think of “the market” as the S&P500, or sometimes the NASDAQ 100 or [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2025 Markets popped 3.5% higher for three days after the November elections. Since then, markets have been as volatile as the daily tweets and policy changes coming out of Washington. It’s creating a lot of anxiety for all of us: citizens, investors, and global politicians, alike. Since the 3-day post-election pop, U.S. markets have been stuck with uncertainty, with the S&P500 -0.3%, and the NASDAQ -0.9%. It surprises people to know that, for the same period, the international stock index, EAFE, is +4.5% and Bonds are +1.7%. So much for tariffs helping the U.S. and hurting our global partners. 2025 has only just begun and, as Pink Floyd might sing today, investors have become “uncomfortably numb.” In the long run, markets trade on fundamentals and valuation. Calculate a business’s earnings today, estimate its future growth rate, assign a reasonable valuation multiple, and you’ve got your future price [...]

Monthly Outlook: February 2025 Our 2025 Outlook made only one prediction: “Unpredictability.” And so far, we’re not wrong! Since the election, the stock market (S&P500) has zig-zagged about 4%, five separate times. Up, down, up, and so on.  But would it surprise you that the S&P500 is actually flat since the day after the November elections? In other words, it’s been a volatile, but mostly flattish, market for the past three months. Investors seem to be hanging on every newsflash, every tweet, and not really sure what’s real and what’s not. If history is any guide (and of course it is), flattish markets don’t last very long, and a clear direction will develop soon enough. But we’ve also learned from history that it’s best not to guess about market trends, and better to let the market show us. We’ll continue our vigilance and invest in uptrends for growth when we [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2025 This is the time of year when we all reflect on the past, ponder the future, and make promises and plans, some of which we’ll keep. Wall Street, similarly, can’t help themselves in making predictions and forecasts, most of which will be wrong, based on history. We all know this, factually, but investors still hang on every word, especially if it agrees with our own view. If TV news would put the forecaster’s actual track record below their on-screen image, we’d surely turn off the TV. But forecasters are rarely held accountable, so the fascination continues. 2025 will be unpredictable for many reasons, especially with Trump in the White House. That’s not a political statement, it’s just an observation of his operating style. Will he deport millions of people on Day One? Will he slash $trillions from the budget? Will he buy Greenland? Many other countries [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2024 The U.S. election outcomes surprised many and have already had a meaningful impact on markets around the world. The expected upcoming shifts in U.S. policies are creating new winners and losers and the markets are adjusting quickly. For example, November was a very good month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P500 up +5.9%. International stocks however, especially emerging markets like China and Mexico, are much weaker due to expectations of tariffs and other deglobalization policies. And bonds were both up and down in November, as interest rates first rose on inflation concerns, before falling back on slowing economy concerns. One thing is for sure, and without being political, the new regime and their proposed policies are striking, disruptive, and sizeable. As investors, we should expect more volatility, more uncertainty, and more need to be flexible and open-minded. We probably don’t even know what we don’t know [...]