Monthly Outlook: October 2025 With summer behind us, I find myself reflecting on vacation travel and the mostly good times that come with adventures and experiencing other parts of the world. Most of you are travelers, so I know you can relate. As I was reflecting, it dawned on me how similar traveling is to investing. By comparing the two, perhaps it will help us recognize where we are today and how to prepare for the road, and markets, ahead. Planning Your Trip There are people that thoroughly plan their trips with research on the local sites and history, best deals to be had, and shortcuts to ease the hassle. And there are people who prefer to “wing it” and take life as it comes. Maybe you check for passport, wallet, sunglasses, and away you go! Or, maybe you identify with both of these types of travelers, depending on how [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2025 Labor Day weekend is the unofficial end of summer. Most kids hate it, most parents love it, and on Wall Street they say that the grownups come back to work (probably from the Hamptons and Aspen) and get serious. With eight months of 2025 already behind us, nearly every market remains uptrending and portfolios have sizeable gains. We’re still “all in” for growth, with little cash buffer. But we remain vigilant for any changes that would shift investors from fear of missing out (FOMO) to fear of losing out (FOLO?). Given the state of the world, such a change could happen quickly. So, let’s use this calm period to get serious about wealth management. Our professional goal is to help our clients live their best lives by making their wealth work for them in the most risk-managed, tax-favorable way. Along the journey, we encourage them to [...]

Monthly Outlook: August 2025 July was another good month for global stock markets despite constant news about on-off tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and earnings. The S&P500 had its third best July since 1928, with 10 new highs, and a gain of 2.2%. Before we get too excited about that, you should know that the 2nd best July since 1928 was July 1929, and we all know how 1929 ended up. We could also factually point out that the S&P500 is up about 25% in the past three months, which sounds great. But we must remember the March-April market plunge caused by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, when the S&P500 dropped nearly 20% in two months. You can see how misleading facts can be when we report on a selective window of time. Looking at the YTD returns, a more common reference timeframe, the S&P500 is up 8.4%, the international EAFE [...]

Monthly Outlook: July 2025 These have been turbulent times, and I can hear the fatigue in the voices of our friends and clients. 2025 is only half over and we’ve experienced so much uncertainty, erratic behavior, and shocking news. Already in 2025, the S&P 500 plunged 20% before recovering 25% for a net 0% move over just four months. That’s a 45% move in four months, to say it another way. That’s nuts! We’ve endured tariffs on, tariffs off, Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Iran, and Trump vs Musk. This week, we watch and wait as Congress debates whether to create a US budget with $3T deficits, the largest planned deficit during peace time ever. What will next week bring us? But here’s the funny thing. Even with all this turmoil, our portfolios are all nicely positive, YTD. Depending on the model, portfolios are up 4% to 7%, YTD, and [...]

  Monthly Outlook: June 2025 The stock markets, for the last two or three months, have been as volatile as I’ve ever experienced, and I’ve been investing for four decades (gulp). The U.S. stock index, S&P500, plummeted 20% and then rebounded 22%. That still leaves it 3% short of the recent high, but that’s the math of compounding. Similarly, the NASDAQ 100 (Big Tech) dropped 24%, then rallied 28%, and is 3% off its high. The same “dump & bump” pattern held true for international stocks with the INTL EAFE index falling 15% and then recovering 22% for a net 5% gain. The point is that all major stock markets moved about 40%+ in just two months if you add the down with the up. Investors just don’t see that kind of movement very often and it’s unsettling, to say the least. We surely don’t need to explain the cause [...]

  Monthly Outlook: May 2025 April was a tough month for global stocks, with record volatility and whipsaw days back and forth. On April 2nd, Trump unleashed his Trump Tariff Tax program that was far bigger and broader than markets were expecting. In the following three days, the S&P500 lost over $6 trillion in value, down 14%. On April 9th, Trump suspended many of the tariffs for 90-days, surely in part due to the crashing stock market. Since then, stocks have zig-zagged higher and are nearly back to where they were on April 2nd. What a wild month! Stocks moved a total of 30% in April, 14% down and 15% up. That is not normal. As it happens, April 30th is the end of Trump’s first 100 days in office. It’s become a common timeframe for all U.S. Presidents’ first “report card,” a tradition going back to F.D.R. in 1933. [...]