Keep on Keeping’ On
Monthly Outlook: October 2017 When everything is working and you’re meeting your goals, you’ve just got to keep on keepin’ on. Markets – almost all of them – just keep trending higher and making us all a lot of money. Nothing seems to scare investors away. Talking heads have ample predictions about what will derail this party, but they’ve all been wrong so far (they’ll say they’re just early). We have political discord, sky-high valuations, missile launches from North Korea, less accommodative central banks, and on and on. All of this is known by investors and already priced in to the market. So far, it seems like they just don’t care! More likely, investors do care but they don’t see anything that will change their growth outlook. Rallies often end when something unforeseen occurs – a black swan event, if you will. And that’s why predictions are usually futile. You’d [...]
Still Invested, Still Watching Carefully
Monthly Outlook: September 2017 August was a typical summer month – not much going on in the markets. Of course, valuations remain sky-high for stocks but investors seem content to hang in there until something breaks. There are some concerns brewing (more on that later) but for now, we’re staying invested and watching very carefully. Rest assured that we look at every position every day so we won’t miss any trend changes. That’s what we do, so you don’t have to. Let’s take a look at the numbers for last month. For August, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) were basically flat, up just 0.1%, international stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) inched higher by 0.6%, while bonds (Barclays Aggregate) did the best, up 0.8%. All markets (US stocks, int’l stocks, bonds) remain in an up-trend (above their 200-day moving average) so the right call is to stay invested for growth. And so we [...]
Too Many Calls for “The Top”
Monthly Outlook: August 2017 We’re starting to sound like a broken record: Last month was yet again another good month for markets and our iFolios’ returns. But that’s a tune we never get tired of hearing! Let’s get right to the numbers. For the month of July, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained 1.9%, international stocks (FTSE All‐world ex‐USA) soared 3.3% higher, and bonds (Barclays Aggregate) plodded 0.4% higher. The trends continue to be “up” for all markets so we remain fully invested. We will point out that markets are fairly extended within their trends, however. For example, the S&P500 is 6.2% above its 200‐day moving average trend line and the NASDAQ is 9.5% above its 200‐day moving average trend line. What that tells us is that the up‐trends are strong and that maybe, just maybe, markets could pause or even pullback a bit over the near term. And by “a [...]
Moving Higher with Eyes Wide Open
Monthly Outlook: July 2017 June was yet another good month for market returns. U.S. stocks have been up‐trending since March 2016, some 15 months ago. Non‐U.S. or international stocks have been up‐trending since July 2016, almost a year ago. And bonds turned up recently in April. We’re sounding like a broken record when we say “up, up!” Let’s enjoy it while we’ve got it. For the month of June, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained 1.1%, international stocks (FTSE All‐world ex‐USA) added 0.5%, and bonds (Barclays Aggregate) edged 0.1% higher. More importantly, all asset classes continue to up‐trend (more on what that means later). We remain fully invested, capturing gains, and watching carefully with eyes wide open. It makes for an enjoyable summer. Looking Directly at the Price If you really think about it, the point of making an investment is to buy something at one price and sell it later [...]
More of the Same – Up, Up!
Monthly Outlook: June 2017 Maybe we should just turn off the news since markets just don’t seem to care about any of it. No matter what happens, or may happen, markets seem to float a little higher each month. May was yet another positive month for gains so yes, we’ll take it. U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained another 1.0% in May while international stocks (FTSE All‐world ex‐USA) added an impressive 3.4%, mostly from European stocks. Bonds did their part, providing stability and modest gains, adding 0.7% total return. Just like last month, we remain heavily invested with little cash reserves in light of the continued uptrends. If we ever get a pullback in stocks of say, 3% to 5%, we’d use that opportunity to put the little bit of cash we do have into more U.S. stocks. But for now, we’re very well invested and capturing the growth that these [...]
Markets Grind Higher
Monthly Outlook: May 2017 April was just more of the same – and that’s a good thing. Global political news dominates the airwaves and media; meanwhile global stock markets just grind higher. U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained another 1.0% in April while international stocks (FTSE All‐ world ex‐USA) added another 2.1%. Bonds, too, contributed to performance with a 0.8% total return. We remain heavily invested with little cash reserves in light of the continued uptrends. There are always areas of concern but we need to “make hay” while we have the opportunity. We’re always watchful for any changes, as we discuss below, but for now markets are providing the growth we want. Global Equity Investing Over the past 8 years U.S. equities have outperformed non‐U.S. or international equities. Some of that has to do with relative economic stability, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and better growth prospects. It’s tempting [...]