Monthly Outlook: February 2018 We’re off to a strong start in 2018!  In fact, it’s been one of the best Januarys for stocks in the past 20 years.  Stocks are on a persistent more-of-the-same run these past few years.  Bonds are a different story, however. U.S. stocks (S&P500) gained +5.5% in January, led primarily by the “FANG” stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google.  International stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) did just as well, gaining +5.7%, with emerging markets outperforming.  Clearly, stocks continue to pump higher and the long-term uptrends remain intact.  Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index), on the other hand, slumped in January due to the rise in interest rates.  The U.S. 10-year treasury rate rose from 2.40% to 2.72% in January.  That 1/3rd % rate rise doesn’t seem like much, but it’s enough for bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) to lose 1.24%, total return including interest.  This slump in bonds [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2018 Happy New Year!  And who wouldn’t be in a great mood after the market returns we enjoyed in 2017?  Last year was the 9th year post-financial crisis, which makes this recovery one of the longest on record without a correction.  But as Newton showed us 300 years ago, an object in motion stays in motion until it meets an opposing force.  And so far, we just haven’t seen a big enough force to unsettle the party.  This “stays in motion” theme is, essentially, our outlook for 2018, which we’ll talk about later in this Outlook. Let’s review 2017 markets before we look ahead.  U.S. stocks (S&P500) gained +21.7% in 2017, led primarily by technology stocks.  International stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) did well, too, gaining 27.4%, with Europe, Asia, and Emerging all contributing evenly.  Bonds (Barclays Aggregate) did their part to add stability but only contributed a [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2017 November ended on a high note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average spiking to a new high, piercing the 24,000 level.  Party hats all around!  It was 50 years ago that The 5th Dimension released “Up, Up and Away in My Beautiful Balloon.”  Maybe it should be re-released as this year’s market theme song.  Based on the amount of calls from clients, you’re all well aware of the exuberance and good returns!  But after the first 30 seconds of the call, comes the skeptical question, “Can it last?”  We’ll discuss this juxtaposition, below, but I’ll tell you now that you’d be justified to feel both delighted and nervous at the same time. Before we look forward, let’s review November.  U.S. stocks (S&P500) did well in November, gaining 3.0%.  This is the 11th straight monthly gain for U.S. stocks, which is very rare.  Much of the strength [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2017 These markets just keep grinding higher!  The S&P500 has been up every month this year and, according to Deutsche Bank, this hasn’t happened for 90 years.  But wait, it gets better.  Every major asset class is in an uptrend: U.S. stocks, international stocks, bonds, and commodities.   It’s just one of those times where it’s good to be an investor and we’re capturing the gains. As Kai Rysdall of APM’s Marketplace would say, “Let’s do the numbers.”  For October, bonds (Barclays Aggregate) were flat, at -0.02% total return.  U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) gained +2.1%, with the Technology sector advancing a very strong +6.5%.  International stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) were also up, adding +1.9% for the month.   Japan was the star of the month for international stocks, gaining +5.2%.  Putting it all together, our most popular iFolios 75/25 benchmark was up 1.4% for the month, the tenth straight [...]

Monthly Outlook: October 2017 When everything is working and you’re meeting your goals, you’ve just got to keep on keepin’ on. Markets – almost all of them – just keep trending higher and making us all a lot of money. Nothing seems to scare investors away. Talking heads have ample predictions about what will derail this party, but they’ve all been wrong so far (they’ll say they’re just early). We have political discord, sky-high valuations, missile launches from North Korea, less accommodative central banks, and on and on. All of this is known by investors and already priced in to the market. So far, it seems like they just don’t care! More likely, investors do care but they don’t see anything that will change their growth outlook. Rallies often end when something unforeseen occurs – a black swan event, if you will. And that’s why predictions are usually futile. You’d [...]

Monthly Outlook: September 2017 August was a typical summer month – not much going on in the markets. Of course, valuations remain sky-high for stocks but investors seem content to hang in there until something breaks. There are some concerns brewing (more on that later) but for now, we’re staying invested and watching very carefully. Rest assured that we look at every position every day so we won’t miss any trend changes. That’s what we do, so you don’t have to. Let’s take a look at the numbers for last month. For August, U.S. stocks (Russell 3000) were basically flat, up just 0.1%, international stocks (FTSE All-world ex-USA) inched higher by 0.6%, while bonds (Barclays Aggregate) did the best, up 0.8%. All markets (US stocks, int’l stocks, bonds) remain in an up-trend (above their 200-day moving average) so the right call is to stay invested for growth. And so we [...]