Monthly Outlook: August 2024 Global stock and bond markets continued to trend higher through July, although the Big Tech stocks waffled a bit this month. YTD through July, the US stock market is up 15%, the international stock market is up 8%, and US Bonds are up 2%. Importantly, nearly every market remains above its price trendline, which is our signal to stay invested for growth. As we look forward, we know we’re in the “100 Days to Go” mode with the elections coming on November 5th. Investors are also on “Fed Watch” as there are multiple hints that the Federal Reserve is getting ready to cut the Fed Funds interest rate at their September 18th meeting. And, to pleasantly distract us through it all, we had the Tour de France in July and now the Olympics in August. It’s a lot to take in and people have a lot [...]

Monthly Outlook: July 2024 We’re halfway through 2024 already and for investors, at least, it’s been a pretty good year. US stocks (Russell 3000) are up 14.1%, and international stocks (MSCI All-World ex-US) are up 5.7%. Bonds are flat, YTD, but are coming back up after a small dip in April. Since all markets are in uptrends (using our trend following signals), we’ve been fully invested all year and have captured the gains that the markets have given us. Our iFolios 100 (all stock) composite is up +9.5%, YTD, and our iFolios 75 (75/25 blend) composite, is up +6.5%, YTD, for example. Our iFolios Long/Short composite is up +11.0%, YTD, leading the pack of our models, per usual. But as we discuss often, averages don’t tell the whole story about markets and this year is especially noteworthy. In 2024, size matters. Mega-cap stocks, especially mega-cap US tech stocks, are vastly [...]

Monthly Outlook: June 2024 School’s out for summer! Last week kids all over the country celebrated graduation, move-ups, and the start of summer. The excitement is palpable as the opportunities for summer fun, from camps to travel to maybe even a summer job, lie before them. Parents surely have mixed feelings of excitement for more family time but more logistical challenges as they balance work and family life. For three months, June, July, and August, we as a country just agree that summer is a time to relax a little, enjoy the bounty that surrounds us, and rejuvenate ourselves even at the cost of a little slower work pace. As responsible adults and investors, this summer is a particularly opportune time to take off, rise to a 30,000-foot view, and consider the bigger picture. Our managed iFolios are up anywhere from 12% to 20% for the past 12 months, depending [...]

Monthly Outlook: May 2024 Markets were a little soft in April, but the overall trend remains up, up, up! It’s been a good run since the recent lows in October 2023 and we’ve been “all in” to capture the growth that markets are giving us. Our strategy is to ride the uptrends for as long as they last. We never use “stop profit” orders, only “stop loss” orders. We’re watching all markets closely and will stay fully invested in each one as long as it is moving higher. We can use this growth mode and quiet period to share some thoughts on an important topic. Today, we’d like to discuss risk tolerance, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and how to make your portfolios truly reflect your own risk tolerance. If it’s smart to shop for umbrellas on sunny days, maybe it’s not a bad idea to contemplate risk [...]

Monthly Outlook: April 2024 The markets bottomed out last October, and they’ve been rebounding higher since. Our portfolios are up an impressive 15% to 18% over the past six months, depending on which iFolios model we’re looking at. And the Long/Short model is up a little more than 18%. The best news is that every market that we invest in remains uptrending as we begin April, so we’re still all-in and positioned for more growth. Of course, we need to look longer term than six months and we know that the overarching goal of most investors is to compound growth and minimize loss from drawdowns to create real wealth over time. In 2022, we were able to show that we could reduce drawdown risk and volatility. And now, over the past six months, we’ve shown that we can capture upside and growth, as well. As a result, our two-year performance [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2024 The rally off the October lows continued through February and nearly every market is trending higher (above its 200-day moving average price trendline). As a result, we remain “all in” for growth and have less than two percent in Cash. Our portfolios under management are up 9% to 16% since October, depending on which allocation model they’re in. That’s in line with market benchmarks, too, so we’re capturing all the gains that the markets have to offer. As the common wisdom goes, “Cut your losers quickly, and let your winners run.” We’re doing that. The economy, and the markets as a reflection, are in a sweet spot for now. Yes, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates from 0% to 5.25%, which hurts borrowers. But it’s working to gradually quell inflation (CPI is down from 10% to 4%) and stabilize prices. Earnings are still good with [...]