Monthly Outlook: June 2024 School’s out for summer! Last week kids all over the country celebrated graduation, move-ups, and the start of summer. The excitement is palpable as the opportunities for summer fun, from camps to travel to maybe even a summer job, lie before them. Parents surely have mixed feelings of excitement for more family time but more logistical challenges as they balance work and family life. For three months, June, July, and August, we as a country just agree that summer is a time to relax a little, enjoy the bounty that surrounds us, and rejuvenate ourselves even at the cost of a little slower work pace. As responsible adults and investors, this summer is a particularly opportune time to take off, rise to a 30,000-foot view, and consider the bigger picture. Our managed iFolios are up anywhere from 12% to 20% for the past 12 months, depending [...]

Monthly Outlook: May 2024 Markets were a little soft in April, but the overall trend remains up, up, up! It’s been a good run since the recent lows in October 2023 and we’ve been “all in” to capture the growth that markets are giving us. Our strategy is to ride the uptrends for as long as they last. We never use “stop profit” orders, only “stop loss” orders. We’re watching all markets closely and will stay fully invested in each one as long as it is moving higher. We can use this growth mode and quiet period to share some thoughts on an important topic. Today, we’d like to discuss risk tolerance, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and how to make your portfolios truly reflect your own risk tolerance. If it’s smart to shop for umbrellas on sunny days, maybe it’s not a bad idea to contemplate risk [...]

Monthly Outlook: April 2024 The markets bottomed out last October, and they’ve been rebounding higher since. Our portfolios are up an impressive 15% to 18% over the past six months, depending on which iFolios model we’re looking at. And the Long/Short model is up a little more than 18%. The best news is that every market that we invest in remains uptrending as we begin April, so we’re still all-in and positioned for more growth. Of course, we need to look longer term than six months and we know that the overarching goal of most investors is to compound growth and minimize loss from drawdowns to create real wealth over time. In 2022, we were able to show that we could reduce drawdown risk and volatility. And now, over the past six months, we’ve shown that we can capture upside and growth, as well. As a result, our two-year performance [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2024 The rally off the October lows continued through February and nearly every market is trending higher (above its 200-day moving average price trendline). As a result, we remain “all in” for growth and have less than two percent in Cash. Our portfolios under management are up 9% to 16% since October, depending on which allocation model they’re in. That’s in line with market benchmarks, too, so we’re capturing all the gains that the markets have to offer. As the common wisdom goes, “Cut your losers quickly, and let your winners run.” We’re doing that. The economy, and the markets as a reflection, are in a sweet spot for now. Yes, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates from 0% to 5.25%, which hurts borrowers. But it’s working to gradually quell inflation (CPI is down from 10% to 4%) and stabilize prices. Earnings are still good with [...]

Monthly Outlook: February 2024 It’s been a terrific three months in markets. And we’re talking all markets, Bonds, US Stocks, INTL Stocks – they’re all trending higher. As a result, we’re still “all in” for growth and our portfolios are up about 11% over the past several months. Investors seem optimistic about the potential of AI (artificial intelligence) and the hope for interest rate cuts. And so far, the economy remains fairly strong and corporate earnings are still growing. So up, up we go! Last year, Technology, Communications, and Consumer Cyclicals were the super-star sectors of the market. We call them “US Growth”, collectively. And just seven stocks, the “Magnificent Seven” contributed about 73% of the total S&P500 return. Already this year, we’re seeing a broadening out of returns as other sectors (Financials, Healthcare, Energy, etc.) and other markets (Bonds, US Value, and INTL) are trending higher, too. We wouldn’t [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2024 As we embark on another year, we first must get through the countless predictions and forecasts. John Kenneth Galbraith said, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” Similarly, Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” All kidding aside, everyone knows that most forecasts are wrong, and sometimes very wrong. But it’s just too irresistible to try, and we seem to be hopelessly addicted to people who claim they can see the future. Take, for example, the Barron’s Roundtable “Year Ahead Outlook.” Twelve leading strategists from major Wall Street firms are interviewed, and their year-ahead stock market and interest rate forecasts are recorded. It’s laughable how wrong they are, year after year, but the survey sure sells newspapers! Not to be outdone, we offer our own 2024 Outlook, below. Unlike most, [...]